HISTORIC STORM IN GOLD: Ounce Breaks $4,000 Psychological Threshold, Quarter Gold Hits TL 10 Thousand

Global markets are reeling from the unprecedented rise in gold prices. Increasing geopolitical risks, political instability in the US and global recession concerns have led investors aggressively to gold. Ounce of gold, which has gained more than 50% value since the beginning of the year, exceeded the 4,000 dollar level with a historic leap, while quarter gold recorded a new record with 9,210 TL in domestic markets.

Safe Harbor Emphasis: Geopolitical Risks Send Gold Prices Skyrocketing

There is a chain of critical interconnected factors behind the long-awaited but surprising rally in the gold market. Ounce of gold (XAU/USD), which hovered around $ 2,620 in the first trading days of the year, tested $ 3,977 in the morning hours of October 8, 2025, and then permanently exceeded the $ 4,000 threshold during the day and settled at an all-time high.

Experts point to three main reasons as the main drivers of the rise:

1. Jeopolitical Tensions: Escalating conflict risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have brought global risk sentiment to a new high. Investors see gold as the number one choice to protect their capital against uncertainty.

2. US Political Uncertainty: The risk of a possible shutdown of the US federal government has raised deep concerns about the functioning of the world's largest economy. This undermined the dollar's credibility and supported gold.

3. Inflation and Central Bank Demand: Expectations of persistently high inflation and uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have increased gold's appeal as a traditional inflation hedge. In addition, the rising demand from many central banks to diversify their reserves with gold instead of dollars is also feeding upward price pressure.

Quarter Gold Above 9 Thousand TL in the Domestic Market

The sharp rise in the global ounce price, combined with the weak course of the Turkish Lira, caused domestic gold prices to skyrocket. Quarter gold, which has gained more than a thousand liras in value in the last month, exceeded the psychological limit of 9 thousand TL and rose to 9,210 TL.

Current Gold Prices (October 08, 2025 - Markets Close):

Economists' Short and Long Term Expectations

Market economists agree that this rally in gold prices is unlikely to lose momentum in the short term.

Short Term Forecasts: Unless geopolitical risks abruptly decrease or a political solution in the US is forthcoming, ounce gold is expected to make the $4,000 level a support point. Volatility is expected to remain high, but declines are expected to be limited.

Long Term Perspective: Analysts say that the persistence of gold prices at these levels is a sign of the reshaping of the global economic order. The gradual weakening of the dollar's hegemony, which is also emphasized in International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports, positions gold as the most reliable investment instrument of the coming years. Some radical forecasts suggest that the price of an ounce could even reach $5,000 by the end of 2026.

Investors are advised to be cautious in their purchases of physical gold, which is traded at a high premium, especially in local markets, and to focus on portfolio diversification.